Countering the Hidden Hand: A Study of Iranian Influence in Iraq - Daesh, ISIS, Social Network Analysis of Iraqi Defense, al-Jubouri Tribe, Islamic State, Social Movement Theory, Irregular Warfare

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. The purpose of this study is to illuminate the pathways of Iranian influence in Iraq in order to provide U.S. decision makers with a possible strategy to counter Iran's malignant influence there. By using a combination of social network analysis and social movement theory, this study illuminates the network of actors fighting Daesh in Iraq by first analyzing the network to map Iran' s influence channels and identify macro- and micro-level brokerage within the network. Using a social-movement focused approach, this study then identifies a candidate group for mobilization. Study of the network reveals that Iranian influence is exerted via its sponsored Shi'a militias and by conducting bloc recruitment of tribal militias. To counter this, the Jubouri tribal confederation located in Salahuddin Province offers high potential for mobilization under U.S. sponsorship that could be used to combat Iranian influence.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. BACKGROUND * 1. Research Question * 2. Central Claim * B. PURPOSE AND SCOPE * C. METHODOLOGY * 1. Data Collection Blueprint * 2. Study Organization * CHAPTER II - LITERATURE REVIEW * A. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS * B. SOCIAL MOVEMENT THEORY * CHAPTER III - IRANIAN INFLUENCE AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS MODEL * A. REVIEW OF THE MCADAM POLITICAL PROCESS MODEL * B. REGIME CRISIS LEADS TO OPPORTUNITY * 1. Iraq in the 1970s and 1980s: The Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War * 2. Iraq in the 2000s: The U.S.-Iraq War (2003-2011) * 3. 2013 to Present Day: Daesh and Iran's Regional Strategy * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF THE IRAQI DEFENSE NETWORK * A. DATA AND METHODS * B. NETWORK OVERVIEW * 1. Major Subgroup Affiliations * C. NETWORK TOPOGRAPHY * 1. Subgroup Analysis * a. Subgroup Analysis Discussion * D. NODE-LEVEL CENTRALITY * a. Node-Level Centrality Analysis * E. BROKERAGE * F. SNA CONCLUSION * CHAPTER V - A COUNTER-INFLUENCE STRATEGY * A. THE SMT MODEL AS AN APPROACH TO CONDUCTING UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE * 1. Application of the SMT Strategy * B. THE JUBOURI TRIBE * 1. Political Opportunities and the al-Jubouri Tribe * 2. The Organizational Strength of the al-Jubouri Tribe * 3. Jubouri Cognitive Liberation * C. CONCLUSION * 1. Overall Findings * 2. Limitations * 3. Recommendations for Further Study

Chapter II reviews literature on the theories of SNA and SMT to facilitate understanding of the issue. It serves as a discussion of the theories driving the data collection and analysis, and point out to the reader exactly where the approach utilized in the analysis fits between the fields of SNA and SMT, as well as how an examination of the Iraqi Defense Network will further our understanding of the two fields. Chapter III is constructed as a case study of the devolution of the Iraqi government following the downfall of the Saddam Hussein regime. It examines the history of Iran' s involvement with Iraq to illustrate how the Iranian government successfully mobilized Iraqi opposition forces against Saddam Hussein in the 1980s and the United States in 2003-2011 to attain its policy objectives. This chapter uses SMT as a lens to analyze Iran' s actions and provide a model to draw out significant lessons that will inform the strategy recommendations in Chapter V.

Chapter IV introduces the analysis of the Iraqi Defense Network as a social network.